BRIDGEPORT, Pa. — The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has released the organization’s 2017 report on the estimated probabilty of competing in college athletics on the varsity level. 
Currently, nearly eight million students currently participate in high school athletics in the United States with more than 480,000 competing at NCAA student athletes.
Based on the 2015-16 High School Athletics Participation Survey conducted by the National Federation of High School Associations and the NCAA’s 2015-16 Sports Sponsorship and Participation Rates Report, the high school-to-NCAA percentages were calculated by dividing the number of NCAA participants in 2015-16 by the number of HS participants in that same year.
In men’s competition, water polo ranks 11th of 14 sports for high school-to-NCAA conversion rate as a total of 21,857 high school athletes competed in 2015-16 with 1,014 varsity athletes taking part in NCAA competition during the same period for a 4.6% rate. Broken down by division, 2.6% of the high school athletes went on to play at the Division I level with Division II (0.7%) and Division III (1.3%) following close behind.
Overall, men’s water polo holds a higher yield than volleyball (3.4%), basketball (3.4%) and wrestling (2.8%). Lacrosse (12.3%), ice hockey (11.7%), baseball (7.1%), swimming (7.1%), football (6.8%), golf (5.9%), cross country (5.6%), soccer (5.6%), tennis (5.1%) and track & field (4.8%) all rate higher than men’s water polo per the NCAA numbers.
The numbers could be skewed due to several potential confounds including multi-sport participation in high school and/or frequency of redshirt status that would lead to a five-year rather than four-year track. Further, the conversion rate does not reflect the number of high school athletes that continue to compete on the collegiate level as the proliferation of club programs allows athletes to compete at institutions that do not field varsity teams.
Women’s water polo holds a slightly higher yield as 5.6% of high school players continue to compete on the NCAA varsity level for the ninth best average among the 13 named sports. A reported 20,230 athletes played high school women’s water polo during the study period, with 1,136 varsity athletes taking to the water during the same time frame on the Division I (3.3%), Division II (1.0%) and Division III (1.3%) levels.
Ice hockey (24.1%) experiences the highest conversion rate, with lacrosse (12.9%), field hockey (10.1%), swimming (7.4%), soccer (7.2%), golf (7.1%) and track & field (6.0%) rate ahead of women’s water polo with softball (5.4%), tennis (4.9%), basketball (3.9%) and volleyball (3.9%) rounding out the list.
| Men | ||||||
| High School Participants | NCAA Participants | Overall % HS to NCAA | % HS to NCAA Division I | % HS to NCAA Division II | % HS to NCAA Division III | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseball | 488,815 | 34,554 | 7.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% |
| Basketball | 546,428 | 18,684 | 3.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% |
| Cross Country | 257,691 | 14,412 | 5.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.3% |
| Football | 1,083,308 | 73,660 | 6.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% |
| Golf | 146,677 | 8,676 | 5.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% |
| Ice Hockey | 35,155 | 4,102 | 11.7% | 4.6% | 0.5% | 6.5% |
| Lacrosse | 109,522 | 13,446 | 12.3% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 7.1% |
| Soccer | 440,322 | 24,803 | 5.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.8% |
| Swimming | 133,470 | 9,455 | 7.1% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 3.2% |
| Tennis | 157,201 | 8,092 | 5.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.4% |
| Track & Field | 591,133 | 28,334 | 4.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% |
| Volleyball | 55,417 | 1,899 | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.9% |
| Water Polo | 21,857 | 1,014 | 4.6% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% |
| Wrestling | 250,653 | 7,075 | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% |
| Women | ||||||
| High School Participants | NCAA Participants | Overall % HS to NCAA | % HS to NCAA Division I | % HS to NCAA Division II | % HS to NCAA Division III | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basketball | 429,380 | 16,593 | 3.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% |
| Cross Country | 222,516 | 15,958 | 7.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% |
| Field Hockey | 59,793 | 6,032 | 10.1% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 5.8% |
| Golf | 74,762 | 5,293 | 7.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| Ice Hockey | 9,514 | 2,289 | 24.1% | 9.0% | 1.0% | 14.0% |
| Lacrosse | 88,050 | 11,375 | 12.9% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 6.5% |
| Soccer | 381,529 | 27,358 | 7.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.9% |
| Softball | 366,685 | 19,680 | 5.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% |
| Swimming | 166,747 | 12,356 | 7.4% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 3.0% |
| Tennis | 183,800 | 8,933 | 4.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.2% |
| Track & Field | 485,969 | 29,048 | 6.0% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% |
| Volleyball | 436,309 | 17,119 | 3.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% |
| Water Polo | 20,230 | 1,136 | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% |
Sources: High school figures from the 2015-16 High School Athletics Participation Survey conducted by the National Federation of State High School Associations; data from club teams not included. College numbers from the NCAA 2015-16 Sports Sponsorship and Participation Rates Report.
- High school figures come from the 2015-16 High School Athletics Participation Survey conducted by the National Federation of State High School Associations. College numbers are from the NCAA’s 2015-16 Sports Sponsorship and Participation Rates Report. These college numbers account for participation in college athletics at NCAA-member schools only.
- High school-to-NCAA percentages were calculated by dividing the number of NCAA participants in 2015-16 by the number of HS participants in that same year. This assumes that high school and college rosters are turning over at roughly the same rate (e.g., both HS and college participation numbers include four classes of students and both sets of teams turn over roughly one-quarter of their rosters each year). In prior versions of this table, more complex calculations were used to estimate the number of HS departures and open college roster slots each year; however, these more involved calculations did not lead to substantially different percentages than the simple calculation used currently. Given several potential confounds (e.g., multi-sport participation in high school, frequency of redshirt in NCAA Division I football that would lead to a 5-year rather than 4-year college track), these calculations should be considered approximations and not exact accounting.
- The high school-to-NCAA divisional percentages were calculated by dividing the number of 2015-16 participants within each NCAA division by the total number of HS participants. For example, we estimate that approximately 3.4% of HS boys basketball participants go on to play at an NCAA school (Divisions I, II or III), but only 1.0% of HS participants do so at the Division I level.
- As the high school figures account only for participants on high school teams and not those competing exclusively on club teams or similar, the true pre-college to NCAA percentages could be lower in some sports (e.g., ice hockey, tennis). Data for several sports (e.g., rowing, skiing, gymnastics) are not shown due to the low number of high school programs in those sports relative to non-scholastic pre-college participation opportunities.
